دانلود کتاب چگونه کشورها ورشکست می‌شوند چرخه بزرگ

At this time, some people believe that there isn’t any limit to government debt and debt growth, especially if a country has a reserve currency. That’s because they believe that the central bank of a reserve currency country that has its money widely accepted around the world can always print the money to service its debts. Others believe that the high levels of debt and rapid debt growth are harbingers of a big debt crisis on the horizon, but they do not know exactly how and when the crisis will come—or what its impacts will be. And what about the big, long-term debt cycle? While the “business cycle” is widely acknowledged and some people recognize that it is driven by a short-term debt cycle, that is not true for the big, long-term debt cycle. Nobody acknowledges it or talks about it. I couldn’t 􀐙nd any good studies or descriptions of it in textbooks, and even the world’s leading economists—including those who are now running, or in the past ran, central banks and government treasuries—didn’t have much to say about this critically important subject when I explored it with them. That is why I did this study and am passing it along. Before I get into all that, I should begin by explaining where I’m coming from. I don’t come to this subject as an economist. I come as a global macro investor who for over 50 years has been through many debt cycles in many countries and has had to navigate and understand them well enough to bet on how they would go. I have carefully studied all the Big Debt Cycles over the last 100 years, and super􀐙cially studied many more from the past 500 years, so I believe that I understand how to navigate them. Because I am deeply concerned about what I’m seeing, I feel a responsibility to pass along this study for others to assess for themselves.