دانلود کتاب چالش های استراتژیک جهانی- تبدیل تهدید به فرصت

The main challenge for the world in the coming months will be to manage the Covid pandemic and its consequences. Emerging from the crisis, dealing with rising unemployment and the risk of bankruptcy, promoting economic recovery, and managing public and private debt will be front-page news and the subject of policy debates. Despite the importance of this short-term challenge, the structural challenges that predate Covid-19 are still with us and have often been exacerbated by the pandemic. We have chosen to focus on three long-term structural challenges: cli­mate change, economic inequality, and demographics. In all three cases, techno­logical change is a central aspect, being both part of the problem and part of the solution. In all three areas, we have tried to look beyond the pandemic and have focused on what we believe are longer-term issues. If the pandemic were to last longer, it would obviously have consequences for each of the three challenges discussed in this book. It would reduce the budgetary margins that could be devoted to fighting global warming; it would reinforce the inequalities that were already present before the pandemic; and it might even change demographic dynamics, with consequences for pension systems. We could have added some commentary along these lines in the introductory chapter, but we considered it too early to make any suggestions. Instead, the book consists of an introductory chapter and chapters on the three themes mentioned earlier. This book makes two kinds of proposals: recommendations, on the one hand, and more exploratory proposals, on the other. Some of the recommendations include measures that have already been the subject of much debate but have never been implemented. We asked ourselves why they were never implemented: poor design, failure to take distributional effects into account, misrepresentation? One of our conclusions is that, if they are to be considered, certain unpopular measures such as a sufficiently high carbon prices or an increase in the effec­tive retirement age must, in order to be accepted, be part of a global approach, a broader set of measures that take into account distributional effects, citizens’ representation, and the issue of trust.