دانلود کتاب توهم کنترل – چرا بحران‌های مالی اتفاق می‌افتد، و چه کاری می‌توانیم (و نمی‌توانیم) در مورد آن انجام دهیم

Almost every economic outcome we care about is long term. Pensions, the environment, crises, real estate, education, you name it, what matters is what happens years and decades hence. Day-to-day fl uctuations don’t matter to most of us—the short run isn’t very important. So it stands to reason that the way we manage our fi nancial lives should emphasize the long run. But by and large, it doesn’t. We are good at managing today’s risk but at the expense of ignoring the promises and threats of the future. That is the illusion of control. A quick test. What do you think are the riskiest years of the past century? Covid in 2020? The global crisis in 2008? The Great Depression in the 1930s? Let’s ask the fi nancial markets and their go-to measurement of risk, volatility. The accompanying drawing depicts the annual stock market risk in the United States, and it confi rms the usual suspects.