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Seven years ago I wrote a book called The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, regarding where investors should direct their greatest attention. In it I said “the most important thing is being attentive to cycles.” The truth, however, is that I applied the label “the most important thing” to nineteen other things as well. There is no single most important thing in investing. Every one of the twenty elements I discussed in The Most Important Thing is absolutely essential for anyone who wishes to be a successful investor. Vince Lombardi, the legendary coach of the Green Bay Packers, is famous for having said, “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” I’ve never been able to figure out what Lombardi actually meant by that statement, but there’s no doubt he considered winning the most important thing. Likewise, I can’t say an understanding of cycles is everything in investing, or the only thing, but for me it’s certainly right near the top of the list. Most of the great investors I’ve known over the years have had an exceptional sense for how cycles work in general and where we stand in the current one. That sense permits them to do a superior job of positioning portfolios for what lies ahead. Good cycle timing—combined with an effective investment approach and the involvement of exceptional people —has accounted for the vast bulk of the success of my firm, Oaktree Capital Management. It’s for that reason—and because I find something particularly intriguing about the fluctuations of cycles—and because where we stand in the cycle is one of the things my clients ask about most—and finally because so little has been written about the essential nature of cycles—that I decided to follow The Most Important Thing with a book devoted entirely to an exploration of cycles. I hope you’ll find it of use.