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The research presented in this book has its roots in the early 2000s. In 2004, theMIT Center for Transportation & Logistics (CTL) launched Supply Chain 2020, a project to identify the principles underlying supply chain excellence and preparedness. From there, the project expanded to include fundamental questions about the structure of supply chain strategy, the nature of strategic alignment, and the logic of future visioning exercises. In keeping with MIT’s spirit of mens et manus (mind and hand), the project involved collaborations between CTL and several companies for formulating supply chain strategies, as well as government agencies interested in long-range transportation planning. These engagements centered around questions such as: “What should a national pharmaceuticals distribution network look like (circa 2010) if the Affordable Care Act adds up to 30 million Americans to the healthcare system?” or “What supply chain capabilities does a beverage manufacturer need to serve consumers increasingly influenced by social media?” Or “Which transportation asset should a state invest in to promote regional competitiveness in a dynamic trade environment?” While such questions came from the public and private sectors, they had several qualities in common. First, they had no easy answers. Even more importantly, it was often not clear what the right questions were in the first place. For example, should the Vice President of Supply Chain aim to adapt his brewer’s supply chain strategy to the growing influence of social media on its consumers? If yes, how? Second, when one did come up with relevant questions, their answers typically depended on ambiguous factors and were difficult to justify logically. For the brewer it meant understanding whether the adoption of social media meant consumers would be sharing pictures of a group of friends drinking a bucket of beers of a microbrewer’s seasonal ale or a global blockbuster lager (affecting demand for the respective products), or having a photo of the friend whose 21st birthday was being celebrated on beer bottles (affecting the brewer’s packaging). Third, all these questions required looking deep into the future. Their answers would lead to investments in assets with lifespans measured in years and decades. Forecasting such a long-term future was difficult in the stable 1960s, but it became even more challenging in the turbulent twenty-first century. Recognizing these challenges made a few things clear, though. One, these questions were of strategic importance: decisions based on the answers would affect competitive advantages or involve judicious use of taxpayer dollars invested by public-sector organizations. Two, it was evident that the traditional supply chain planning methods—such as demand forecasting, inventory models, stochastic network optimization, risk management—were inadequate for answering these questions. It became necessary to have a methodology that could handle unpredictability about the future and ambiguity of the factors involved. Three, such a methodology would also need to harness the wisdom of a collection of experts in various domains connected to the supply chain. This led the MIT CTL researchers to scenario planning, a method used since the 1950s to make strategic decisions while managing the ambiguity and unpredictability inherent in such decision contexts. Initial explorations of scenario planning involved creation of scenarios for specific industry cases and their discussions in CTL’s executive education programs. Their purpose was educational; the CTL team did not use the scenarios to formulate actual supply chain strategies. A session in 2006 even explored a scenario of an outbreak of a deadly virus that could turn into a global pandemic! While this was a useful academic exercise (after all, no such event had happened for over 80 years), the CTL researchers learned about the efficacy of the scenario method just as much as the program participants did.