دانلود کتاب چشم انداز اقتصاد جهانی

T he global economy is stabilizing, following several years o f negative shocks. Global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6 percent this year, despite flaring geopolitical tensions and high interest rates, before edging up to 2.7 percent in 2025-26 alongside modest expansions of trade and investment. Global inflation is expected to moderate at a slower clip than previously assumed, averaging 3.5 percent this year. Central banks in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are likely to remain cautious in easing policy. As such, markedly higher interest rates than prior to the pandemic are set to sustain for an extended period. Despite some improvement, the outlook remains subdued. Global growth over the forecast horizon is expected to be nearly half a percentage point below its 2010-19 average, with a slower pace of expansion in economies comprising over 80 percent of the global population. EMDE growth is projected to moderate from 4.2 percent in 2023 to 4 percent in 2024. Amid heightened conflict and violence, prospects remain especially lackluster in many vulnerable economies—over half of fragile and conflict-affected economies will still be poorer in 2024 than on the eve of the pandemic. Risks have become more balanced but remain tilted to the downside. Escalating geopolitical tensions could lead to volatile commodity prices. In a context of elevated trade policy uncertainty, further trade fragmentation risks additional disruptions to trade networks. More persistent inflation could lead to higher-for-longer interest rates. Other risks include weaker-thananticipated activity in key economies and disasters related to climate change. Against this backdrop, policy makers face daunting challenges. Global efforts are needed to safeguard trade, support green and digital transitions, deliver debt relief, and improve food security. Still-pronounced inflation risks underscore the need for EMDE monetary policies to remain focused on price stability. High debt and elevated debt-servicing costs will require EMDE policy makers to balance sizable investment needs with fiscal sustainability. To meet development goals, policies are needed to raise productivity growth, improve the efficiency of public investment, build human capital, and close gender gaps in the labor market.