دانلود کتاب ریسک هوش مصنوعی در رتبه‌بندی‌های اعتباری

This book, written early in 2025, exists at the very early stages of a journey that could define human civilisation. The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies across almost every sector is changing the way in which the world operates, how the world understands something ranging from the simple to the incredibly complex, and it is changing what the world believes is possible for its future. But, for the most part, it is all very early.
The nascent stage of development in any field makes it difficult to summarise, suggest or declare. With respect to credit risk assessment, it is very early indeed. This work is focused on the leading credit rating agen-cies and how they are adopting the AI technologies, but why? Of concern here is the amalgamation of several factors which we believe could be pertinent factors for regulators and legislators to consider. Those tasked with creating, maintaining and ultimately evolving the regulatory frame-works that sit around the leading credit rating agencies have a remarkable task. It is remarkable because they are inevitably behind the curve. The regulatory framework is focused on a sector that is synergistically attached to the fortunes of private debt and credit, which in the modern world is almost fundamental to human life. That fact alone, given its weight, affects all parties. Credit rating agencies understand their systemic posi-tion. Regulators understand that there are limits to actions they can take as a result. Investors understand their importance and the tools at their disposal, like the ratings of the agencies. Finally, issuers understand that, to signal their creditworthiness to a diversified investor base that is defined by the agent-principal relationship, they need the easy-to-understand and theoretically impartial third-party ratings of the credit rating agencies. A system within a system.
However, those binding constraints and factors have pitfalls. What if the credit rating agencies, after understanding that dynamic, decide they cannot lose their position if they transgress? What happens if, despite your acknowledged role being to provide services to investors irrespective of the fact it is issuers who pay for ratings (let’s not forget, the second largest credit rating agencies was known as Moody’s Investors Service for nearly all of its life since its foundation), a credit rating agency makes a summation that they can manipulate their methodologies and overlook key underlying information in order to please paying issuers at the expense of investors who they know will be harmed? There is very little punish-ment or deterrent available within the legal system that surrounds the credit rating agencies. Now imagine that this all happens, and a legal framework is erected which now includes a bar for liability and, subse-quently, that legal framework acts. That action, eventually, results in the largest financial settlements ever recorded for the credit rating industry, at $1.3 billion and $864 million for the two largest credit rating agencies but, on reflection, those penalties are a fraction of the money made by transgressing. A systemic response that sends a clear signal, but perhaps not the one the system thinks it is sending.
The above, in a framed nutshell, is the credit rating agencies’ involve-ment in the Global Financial Crisis. The story, delivered in rapid fashion, from start to finish. But for us, we are now in a post-Global Financial Crisis stage (ostensibly). Today, we have an even bigger, more influential, more resource-rich credit rating oligopoly that has not only survived its biggest test but thrived in spite of it. The real test is not for the credit rating agencies, but instead for the regulatory framework that was erected in response to the credit rating agencies’ role in the Global Financial Crisis; can it withstand whatever comes next? Whatever comes next, if at all, will happen within an environment based upon a simple under-standing: all of the relevant parties know, irrespective of whether they can articulate it or not, that this ‘system’ we have described for you must be maintained. It cannot be disregarded, or even altered. It is central to the movement of credit on a global scale, encompassing companies, coun-tries, financial products and everything else in between. This is why every attempt to change the system since the Global Financial Crisis has failed.