دانلود کتاب شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو در تحلیل قابلیت اطمینان

Operational safety (OS) is a major concern for those responsible for operating complex industrial systems to meet operational and regulatory requirements. OS is a multidisciplinary scientific discipline in its own right and is constantly evolving to integrate new tools and requirements, particularly in the areas of maintenance and technological risk management. It is defined as “the ability of an entity to satisfy one or more required functions under given conditions”. In a broad sense, OS is considered the science of failures and breakdowns. The major difficulties in operational safety lie in the random nature of the moment of occurrence of the failure, the knowledge of its reliability law and the difficulty of carrying out real reliability tests. Many explicit or statistical methods have been developed by many researchers. This book exhaustively describes the Monte Carlo simulation methods in operational safety. It clearly describes, for the non-specialist, the reasons why, Monte Carlo simulations are essential when analytical methods are insufficient or impractical. It presents four parts that are essential to technicians and engineers concerned with Monte Carlo simulation methods for reliability studies, spare stock management, availability and safety. This book differentiates the cases of systems operated without maintenance from those subject to maintenance. It proposes a very relevant classification of reliability during the lifetime of equipment by describing the problems linked to predictive reliability and operational reliability by describing the role of Monte Carlo simulations. This book differentiates the case where explicit solutions exist from that where no analytical solution is possible. Also, a very relevant and detailed analysis is provided on reliability testing. Indeed, this area is the Achilles heel of dependability studies because it is very difficult to experimentally validate failure rates of components with FITs of billions of operating hours. The book proposes carrying out a “virtual” reliability test by Monte Carlo simulations to try to solve this crucial problem for high-tech industries. The end of the book presents the applications of Monte Carlo simulation methods for the availability and safety of systems in the presence of failure. In conclusion, this book is aimed at engineers, researchers and industry professionals seeking to deepen their knowledge of system reliability and Monte Carlo simulations. This book provides clear answers and practical tools to address the challenges posed by the complexity and uncertainty inherent in modern technological systems.