دانلود کتاب درس‌هایی از بحران‌ها، جنگ و دیپلماسی برای سیاست جهانی

Why do some international crises go to war, while others do not? This question motivates our book, and we search for an answer within the diplomacy that states use to manage the crisis at hand. More specifically, we examine a set of fifteen historical crises (from 1815 to the present), focusing on the decisions that leaders took during each crisis. We then systematically compare the crises that escalate to war with those that do not – to see what factors distinguish the crisis diplomacy that ends in war from that which avoids war. Over the last fifty years, many scholars – ourselves included – have addressed our research question through the statistical analysis of data. Although we agree that such an approach has value, we think that the more traditional approach of examining historical cases also has much to contribute. Brecher recognized this; indeed, he started the International Crisis Behavior project as a way to combine quantitative and case study analysis (see Brecher and Wilkenfeld 1997). We are, to a certain extent, following his lead; yet we created this study for a second reason as well. In our opinion, quantitative scholars – and our students – should know at least one historical period in depth to understand and appreciate the statistical findings they uncover more fully. We hope that our in-depth review of various historical crises provides not merely a cursory understanding of the international history of the post-Napoleonic era but also one that interprets this history in a way that incorporates the best insights from the scientific study of peace and war. By analyzing historical crises in light of statistical findings, we hope to provide an explanation for the decisions that have led to or avoided war. Although we use this book as the main text in our courses on crisis diplomacy, others may use it as supplementary reading in other international relations (IR) courses. To aid instructors in this endeavor, Table P.1 provides a list of the cases that they can assign in their introductory and general courses, organized according to prominent IR concepts.