دانلود کتاب آینده آب و هوا – جلوگیری و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی

This book grew out of research on climate change (and environmental economics more generally) that I have been engaged in over the past decade. The primary focus of this research has been on the nature and implications of uncertainty. How much do we know or not know about climate change itself, and about its impact on the economy and on society in general? Has the uncertainty over climate change and its impact been increasing or decreasing over the past decade or two, and how is it likely to change in the future? And what does this uncertainty imply for climate policy? Does it mean that we should avoid taking drastic action now, and instead wait until we learn more? Or does it mean the opposite; that we should act now, as a way of buying insurance against the possibility of a very bad climate outcome? This book is also a response to the fact that many of the books, articles, and press reports that we read make it seem that we know a lot more about climate change and its impact than is actually the case. Commentators and politicians often make statements of the sort that if we don’t sharply reduce CO2 emissions, the following things will happen, as though we actually knew what will happen. Rarely do we read or hear that those things might happen; instead we’re told they will happen. Naturally, we humans prefer certainty to uncertainty, and feel uncomfortable when we don’t know what lies ahead. Most people prefer to hear or read statements of the sort “By 2050 the temperature will rise by 3∘C and sea levels will rise by 5 meters,” as opposed to “there is a 30-percent chance that temperature will rise by 3∘C or more, and a 70-percent chance it will rise by less than 3∘C.” But as distressing as it might be, the simple fact is that the “climate outcome,” by which I mean the extent of climate change and its impact on the economy and society more generally, is far more uncertain than most people think.