دانلود کتاب پیشرفت‌ها در فناوری‌های مبتنی بر ریسک

In this evolving global world-order where apart from economics and sustainability as the two major indicators, there are overriding factors, like ‘de-risking’—that covers random as well motivated or intended components of risk (safety and security)— and ‘reliability’ that form an integral part of dependability metrics. The current engineering systems, having their roots in technological evolution, are essentially governed by rules or specifications, best-practices, hands-on learning, experience, and peer-reviewed and enforcement systems. Here, the scope for interpretation, at times, is limited towards arriving at decisions.
We witness phenomenal progress in science and technology that is also reflected in advanced technologies that not only support but effectively enhance safety and reliability objectives. The advancement in safety and reliability technology in safety-critical systems, viz., structural, process, space, nuclear, water transport, and rail and road transport are a testimony or tribute to the success of state of the art in science and technology. However, if we look at the history of accidents and societal challenges, we still see that further efforts are required. One of the major observations has been that the human factor is one of the major contributing factors to accidents and unrest, and one still wonders—‘a lot has to be done even now’.
If the present international eco-system is any indicator, then it is evident that for true progress and happiness, we need a profound value-based system where ‘consciousness or to be more precise conscience-driven value system is the need of the hour’. Of course, ‘quality’ metrics is effective to a great extent ensuring desired performance and dependability-related aspects for engineering and social systems as a starting point. Here come risk and reliability attributes that have potential to ensure product, system and service overall performance employing quantitative goals and criteria, to a large extent, in perpetuality.
However, the challenge is the science and technology of risk and reliability is yet to achieve the higher level of considerations, e.g., demands for higher capability in terms of capturing dynamic, common cause failure, human factor and data and models with an acceptable level of uncertainty, for improved acceptability, and further become part of risk-informed and further risk-based engineering. Here, the risk also covers loss of availability and reliability that might lead to loss of production and compromised services that eventually and adversely impact the business bottom-line.
The state of the art in PRA is generally considered as matured enough to form a part of risk-informed evaluation. The reason is, PRA provides an integrated, struc-tured and quantified model with provision to characterize uncertainty, documented required for any review and evaluation. Here, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a needed platform to either complement or supplement the existing deterministic methods as part of a risk-informed approach or as an alternate or standalone approach for not only risk assessment but also for the development of risk-based applications requiring identification and prioritization, e.g., risk-based in-service inspection, generally one-time activities—ageing management and routine maintenance management, safety significance identification to support prioritization of regulatory review management, etc. The increasing interest in the use or adoption of risk-based or risk-informed approach and effective solutions that can be seen in the open literature shows that these tools and methods will become an integral part of design, operation and regulation.
In the present context, there appears a silver lining in the context of de-risking our systems, structures and components. The phenomenal growth of advanced tech-nologies including digital, complex computing, artificial intelligence & machine learning coupled with availability of data and experience is creating an eco-system for advanced research and development, towards addressing real-time engineering challenges. This is truly a promising development for further consolidating the effectiveness of the risk-informed approach and further development or improving risk-based technology as applicable to complex system engineering systems. The objective is to support various stages of development right from conceptualization, design, commissioning, operation, regulation and finally disposal as part of tracking sustainability.
The above discussion provides the background for identifying the title and theme of this book entitleds Advances in Risk-Based Approach for Complex Engi-neering Systems—Transformative Role of Evolving Technologies.